125. The Court finds no significance in plaintiffs' analysis showing that in the years 1978, 1979, and 1980, in which two sessions of the Class 6 Selection Boards met to consider promotions to Class 5, the first sessions underpromoted women while the second sessions overpromoted them. Not only is the methodology used to arrive at these results questionable, but the overall statistics for each year show no disparity reflected in the promotion rates of women versus men. Defendant provided a study showing that there was no difference in time from entering Class 6 to entering Class 4, based on first or second board promotion, thus showing no harm to those women promoted in the second session.
126. The heart of plaintiffs' promotion claim is that females face a barrier at Class 5 to their promotion to Class 4. The most credible analysis by plaintiffs, a logistic regression controlling for sex, time in class, cone, and allowing the effect of time in class to differ by cone, produced results indicating that between 1976 and 1983 women eligible for promotion in Class 5 were significantly less likely to be promoted than men. The probability that these results would exist as a product of chance is less than 4 percent.
127. Plaintiffs presented a further series of analyses which purported to support their position, all of which relied upon grade at hire. Plaintiffs' calculation of grade at hire was flawed and unreliable, however, and the results have no significance. In addition, these same analyses suffered from aggregation problems arising from attempting to obtain summary results from year-by-year surveys.
128. The only credible analysis offered by plaintiffs was the logistic regression (PX 103B).
129. Defendant presented an analysis, a conditional logit accounting for time in class, which, for the period 1975-1983, showed a discrepancy between the promotion rates from Class 5 for females and males, but the standard deviation measured only 1.76.
130. Plaintiffs' expert, using the same conditional logit method but applying it to his data, calculated that the difference between male and female promotions for the period 1976-1983 measured 1.88 standard deviations. Though the data base of plaintiffs' expert is questionable, his results indicate that defendant's statistics for 1975 to 1983 are indicative of those which would have resulted for the 1976-1983 period. Indeed, the 1975 figures are probative of the issues in this case.
131. Time in class is the proper variable for explaining the apparent disparity of promotions of females from class. It is clear from the testimony that females are newer in the Service and have less time in each class.
132. While each expert had different data bases leading to different conclusions on many issues, these differences are irrelevant when comparing plaintiffs' logistic regression (PX 103B) with defendant's conditional logit. (Table 1, Model 2 of DX 8A).
133. Defendant's conditional logit more accurately accounts for the promotion system used by the Foreign Service than does plaintiffs' use of a logistic regression analysis. Plaintiffs' own expert admitted to this conclusion.
134. The significance of these results at Class 5, whether looking at plaintiffs' finding of 1.88 standard deviations or defendant's 1.76, is lessened considerably as those analyses look only at one class. Plaintiffs' expert admitted that, as to Class 4 and above, the probability of selection for promotion appears to be the same for males and females. Defendant's conditional logit supports this position. In addition, plaintiffs made no claim of discrimination in promotion at Classes 7 and 8.
135. When using Model 2 of the conditional logit (DX 8A, Table 1), the figures illustrate that, over Classes 1 through 6, the disparity of promotion between males and females measures only 1.13 standard deviations - a statistically insignificant difference.
136. No credible anecdotal evidence was offered by any female FSO of being denied promotion from Class 5 to Class 4 because of sexual discrimination.
Equal Employment Efforts by the Department of State
137. The Department of State had made sincere efforts during the period of this lawsuit (1976 to present) to improve the status of women in the Foreign Service and has successfully responded to many individual and class-wide grievances of female FSO's.
138. In 1975 the Department instituted an interim affirmative action Mid-Level Program, designed to increase the number of women and minorities at the mid-level. By 1986, it is estimated that over 100 women will have been appointed. The program is being phased out because these mid-level appointments affect the opportunities of those entering at the bottom levels. Furthermore, many bottom level entrants are moving up to the mid-level.
139. The Department of State has on numerous occasions issued directives stating that female FSO's were to be treated identically to their male counterparts and that posts abroad could not maintain different protocol standards for male and female FSO's.
140. The Department of State has on two occasions made studies of the status of women and minorities, in 1977 with the "Executive Level Task Force on Affirmative Action" and in 1979 the "Habib Committee." Many of the recommendations, which included concerns about recruitment, appointment of more women to executive level positions, and review of the FSO written examination, were implemented.
Conclusions of Law
1. Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended by the Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972, prohibits discrimination in employment on the basis of sex:
a) It shall be unlawful employment practice for an employer --
(1) to fail or refuse to hire or to discharge any individual, or otherwise to discriminate against any individual with respect to his compensation, terms, conditions, or privileges of employment, because of such individual's . . . sex . . .; or